Monday, October 20, 2008

Hold your horses on Colorado!

If McCain has wrote off Colorado as CNN and the KOS are reporting, then why in the world did Sarah Palin waste three separate stops there today?!?! I'm not buying it for a minute. Yes, I'd write off New Mexico but not Colorado yet. We have seen 7 different national polls converge on the number 5 over the past 10 days. The state polling is just starting to turn for McCain.

Let's look at some recent swing-state polling versus were we were 7 to 10 days ago:

Colorado
10-10 Obama +10 PPP
10-12 Obama +9 Quinnipiac
Today Obama +5 Fox News/Rasmussen

Ohio
10-08 Obama +4 Marist
10-09 Obama +5 InAdv/PollPosition
10-13 Obama +5 SurveyUSA
Today McCain +2 FOX News/Rasmussen

Florida
10-13 Obama +4 InAdv/PollPosition
10-14 Obama +5 CNN/Time
10-15 Obama +4 Research 2000
Today McCain +1 FOX News/Rasmussen

Let me summarize, if McCain can move the national polling average from 4 to 5 pts Obama, to 1 to 2 pts Obama, then the following state scenarios will occur on election day:

McCain will easily win Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana.

Pure toss-ups will be Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.

DAK's advice for McCain Campaign:
1. Campaign Sarah Palin in CO, NV, Western PA and Western VA for the next 2 weeks.
2. Campaign Rudy Giuliani and Joe Lieberman in Florida for the next 2 weeks.
3. Campaign John McCain in Eastern Pennsylvania and Northern Virginia for the next 2 weeks.

270 Electoral Votes For McCain On Election Day Is Not Out Of The Realm Yet!

In response to: CNN's John King: McCain writes off Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa

2 comments:

SureHowDoYouKnow said...

Great analysis!

The Hawg! said...

What? But the media is already writing that "Obama Wins!" headline.

Certainly they couldn't simply be wishing for an Obama victory.

No.

'Course not...