Thursday, October 23, 2008

10/23 - 2008 Presidential DAK Polling Average = Obama +4.2

The Daily KOS is reporting that John McCain has conceded the election. Does this mean that Sarah Palin gets to be President? I'm down with that.

Anyhow, our average is up a little due to Rasmussen going to 7pts. The poll to keep an eye on here is the IBD/TIPP poll. It was the most accurate poll in the 2004 election.

In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within 3/10 of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster." We''re planning to do it again this time around, so why not come along for the ride!

Rasmussen Reports
Obama +7

Gallup (Traditional)*
Obama +4

Obama +5

Obama +1

Obama +4

In response to: McCain concedes


Steve Nelson said...

IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds.

Does that seem right?

fivethirtyeight discusses this anomaly.

Mundy said...

From 538... "But the basic takeaway is this: you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise."

... unless they show Obama +50!