Wednesday, October 29, 2008

10/29 - 2008 Presidential DAK Polling Average = Obama +4.6

Although we only gained 0.1 pt in the polls today, you can not ignore the fact that we now have four polls at 3pts! Just as it took some time for the polls to galvanize around the 5pt mark, we're seeing some stragglers (Hotline and ABC News) slowing down the pack. Also notice that 5 of the 7 polls now have Obama at less than 50%. This is huge. If Obama can settle slightly less than 48 pts, McCain will win. We're still shooting for a 3pt average on Friday!

Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3

Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3

Diageo/Hotline Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5

ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8

IBD/TIPP Obama 47, McCain 44 Obama +3

GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3

In response to: Tracking Poll Update

3 comments: said...

Although I do not hold much hope in any poll being an accurate predictive measure of an absolute victory/defeat, I do believe they accurately measure the sentiment of the voters.

I like the direction the polls are moving! A little more momentum in the 'right' direction would be great.

Mundy said...

We have a shot at this thing!

Anonymous said...

"We have a shot at this thing!"

I would look up the electoral college.

If McCain carries every single battleground state, carries every state in which Obama has less than a 5% lead, he still loses.

Which means the country wins.